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If you’re at least
a casual blackjack player, you are most
likely familiar with “the book” and
playing according to it. For those who
don’t know, “the book” is basically a
set of rules to play by. For example, if
you where playing by “the book”, you
would never split a pair of tens or
double down with a total count of five.
However, sometimes there’s a reason to
deviate a little. If you always play by
the book, you will be limiting yourself.
One rule that I
never understood was staying on twelve
when the dealer’s up card is a two. The
thinking here is that the dealer has
twelve and you should let him or her
bust. However, I was a dealer and I made
more hands out of twelve than you can
imagine. Many times that twelve ended up
being eighteen, nineteen, twenty and
twenty-one. I submit to you that a hand
of twelve, with the dealer’s up card
being a two, should be hit. Only a card
that equals ten can bust you, while many
cards can help you or pull them away
from the dealer, which can lead to a
dealer bust.
Always double
down on an eleven—that’s what we’re
told. I don’t care for this rule at all.
Sure, I double down a ton, but not
always. One instance should bring you a
moment of pause. If the dealer’s up card
is a ten and you have seen many tens and
faces go out, be careful. You could
simply be setting yourself up for a
double loss. Take a peak at these two
scenarios.
Scenario One:
Hand: 11
Double Down: Yes
Card Received: 10
Result: 21 and a win
Bank: +2 units
Hand: 11
Double Down: Yes
Card Received: 5
Result: 16 and a loss
Bank: - 2 units
Final Bank:
Even
Scenario Two:
Hand: 11
Double Down: No
Card Received: 10
Result: 21 and a win
Bank: +1
Hand: 11
Double Down: No
Card Received: 2 (13)
Action: Hit again and receive a 6.
Result: 19 and a push
Bank: push (0)
Final Bank: +1
As we can see,
not doubling down was the best course of
action. If you were playing the dealer
head up and not one card equaling ten
was out there, you would have a 33.3%
probability of getting a 10 and a 41.1%
probability of ending up with twenty or
twenty-one. By playing the hand out
normally, you not only can achieve the
same or better results, but you can
potentially save some hands that would
have otherwise been lost. If you are
able to estimate how many cards equaling
ten are out there, your decision will be
easier to make.
The next time
someone tells you to play by the book,
tell them that you are no longer sipping
the baby’s bottle of blackjack strategy
and have graduated to solid foods.
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